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| Power battery industry saying goodbye to |
| Time：2019-08-03 Source：Economic Daily Views：7860 |
Power battery is the heart of new energy vehicles. Battery cost accounts for 40% to 60% of the total production cost of new energy passenger vehicles. Its technological progress plays a key role in the development of electric vehicles. With the improvement of power battery industry concentration and the gradual maturity of technology routes, power batteries in the future will develop in the direction of safer, longer life and faster charging speed.
Recently, galaxy securities released data showing that the concentration of the power battery market in 2016 has been further improved, byd, CATL, watma, guoxuan high-tech, tianjin lishen, five power battery enterprises, the combined market share of nearly 70%. Experts said that with the continuous improvement of the concentration of the power battery industry, it will effectively improve the small, scattered and chaotic market situation, and enhance the r&d capacity and market competitiveness of large enterprises, so as to accelerate the pace of power battery progress and better support the development of the electric vehicle industry.
The market landscape has changed
"Currently, the major problems facing China's lithium battery industry are low concentration, lack of technology accumulation and innovation, leading to serious resource dispersion and disorderly competition in the market." Zhang yu, secretary general of power battery application branch of China chemical and physical power industry association, said frankly that this makes China's lithium battery industry always large but not strong, unable to optimize the allocation of resources, form a standardized and orderly market pattern, and unable to form synergy with external competition.
However, in the past year, from the perspective of brand competition pattern in the industry, the power battery market has shown a further increase in brand concentration in both the fast charge field and the slow charge field. Data show that the top five power battery companies have a combined market share of nearly 70 percent. Among them, lithium iron phosphate batteries have a higher market concentration, accounting for 84% of the top four batteries, and 60% of the top four ternary batteries. Behind the increased concentration is the overall market growth. The reporter learned that in 2016, the shipment of power batteries reached 27.8GWh, an increase of nearly 80% year-on-year. Among them, the shipments of passenger cars, passenger cars and logistics vehicles accounted for 56%, 32% and 12% respectively. Passenger cars are still the largest application market, but the proportion of passenger cars is increasing rapidly. In terms of battery type, due to its dominant position in the field of passenger cars, lithium iron phosphate battery still accounts for more than 70%. Ternary battery with high energy density has obvious advantages in the field of passenger cars and logistics vehicles, with a shipment volume of nearly 6GWh and a penetration rate of about 20%.
"The bottom line is that the invisible hand of the market is at work." Song han, vice President of the market of weihong power system co., told economic daily that with the stimulus of the policy, a large amount of capital has entered the power battery industry, which has indeed promoted the initial development of the industry. However, the small, scattered and chaotic brand pattern can hardly meet the real needs of terminal customers after all. A few leading enterprises with core technology advantages and brand advantages can better win the trust and recognition of customers, thus gaining more market shares.
In the past two years, the power lithium battery market has become the largest engine of the rapid growth of the global lithium battery market. According to the statistics of China chemical and physical power industry association, China has become the world's most active lithium battery development region. In 2016, China's lithium battery market was about 111.5 billion yuan, and the demand for power lithium battery was 60.5 billion yuan, up 65.8% year-on-year. By 2020, the demand for power batteries will be five times that of 2015.
Regressive subsidies are forcing the transition
At the end of 2016, the industry attention of the new energy vehicle subsidies officially launched. The new policy raises the subsidy threshold for new energy vehicles, establishes a punishment mechanism, and the subsidy amount shall be reduced, that is, the local financial subsidy shall not exceed 50% of the central financial subsidy amount. In addition to fuel-cell vehicles, the central and local subsidy standards and upper limits for all types of vehicles from 2019 to 2020 will be reduced by 20 percent from the current standards.
It is believed that the power battery market will suffer a sharp decline in 2017 under the influence of the subsidy retreat. Take the bus market, where power batteries are most widely used, for example, subsidies for all-electric buses of 8 to 10 meters have dropped by 50% from a maximum of 400,000 yuan to a maximum of 200,000 yuan. The huge subsidy cuts could lead to a decline in sales of electric buses, which in turn could slow the growth of the market for power batteries.
"There is no denying the negative impact on the power battery market as subsidies decline, but it is unlikely that there will be a significant decline in the market." Song han said that the whole new energy automobile industry chain actively responded to the challenge, through product technology upgrading, optimization of production management, supply chain optimization and other ways to control the cost of products, to provide more competitive products for end customers.
Qin xingcai, President of tianjin lishen battery co., said the pressure caused by the subsidies is indeed great, but an industry cannot rely on state subsidies alone. At present, the power battery industry is in the rapid expansion stage, the next stage of the industry will be reshuffled.
"High fast growth" into the future trend
Whether battery companies can keep up with the process of policy decline and stand out in the new round of industry reshuffle depends on whether they can further reduce costs while improving battery safety, life span and energy efficiency.
"Market competition in the power battery industry will be further intensified, low-end redundant capacity will be eliminated, and high-quality enterprises will be in an increasingly favorable position in the future market competition." According to the latest adjusted subsidy policy, the subsidy will gradually decline in the next five years, which will greatly affect customers' purchasing decisions, Mr. Song said. Enterprises with technological advantages, brand advantages and scale advantages are better than other enterprises in product performance, customer reputation, cost sharing and other aspects, which are easier to win customers' trust and get orders.
At present, there are many technical routes for lithium battery industry. In order to truly realize the marketization promotion of new energy vehicles and make consumers more assured and convenient to use new energy vehicles, it is an inevitable trend to choose and develop "high safety, fast charging and long life" battery technology. First, safety is the primary concern for batteries. Secondly, the battery needs the ability of fast charging to meet the mobility requirements of consumers. Long life is the basic principle of automobile design, which also ensures the circulation of second-hand vehicles.
It is worth noting that, from the perspective of technical route, enterprises adhering to the slow charging route have gradually begun to penetrate the fast charging route in the current market. From the recent announcements of some enterprises, it can be seen that many representative enterprises of slow charging route have launched fast charging products.
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